Author Archives: Ben Cohen

John Gasaway On Tempo-Free Statistics

For my print column today, I wrote about tempo-free statistics and the people who believe staunchly in them. John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus, who wrote about Alex Fanaroff’s column last week, offered a crash course in tempo-free statistics in our phone conversation, parts of which are excerpted below.

What is your general philosophy on tempo-free statistics, and why is all of this worth examining?

The important thing to remember is that by using this tempo-free thing, we’re not being terribly advanced or strange. We’re just trying to get to a point where other major sports have long been and taken for granted, and that is being able to point to a team and say, empirically, that they have a good offense, or this team over here has a good defense. It’s strange that in basketball — not just college, but basketball period — we haven’t been able to do that, widely, as fans until the past few years.

And I realize that I’m taking my life in my hands saying this to a Dukie, but the key pioneer here was Dean Smith. He was the guy who said, well, wait a minute, what we really should be doing is keeping track of how well we do on each opportunity in the game. He did that as an assistant 50 years ago in the late 1950s, and everybody that anybody else, up to and especially me, has been doing ever since is just following along in his path.

So it’s not new by any means. It’s very old. But what is new is that people are paying attention to it and using it. It’s an accurate way of putting teams next to each other that are very, very different in terms of pace or style and saying, well, this is how well they really did.

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Duke To Open 2010 Season With Elon

David Cutcliffe will kick off his third season at Duke with a Sept. 4 home game against in-state FCS squad Elon, the school announced yesterday. The Phoenix finished last year with 9-3 and in the FCS Top 10, where it was joined by Richmond, the FCS team that spoiled the Blue Devils’ 2009 opener in Wallace Wade Stadium. Elon head coach Pete Lembo called his team’s 2010 slate “the most challenging schedule” he had put together, pinpointing the matchup with Duke as the highlight of the schedule.

As ACC Now noted, Cutcliffe has started every Duke season with an FCS opponent. In his first game at Duke, he led the Blue Devils to a resounding 31-7 win over James Madison before dropping last year’s opener against Richmond, 24-16.

Although Duke has not officially released its schedule yet, it will also feature non-conference games against Army, Navy and defending BCS champion Alabama, which comes to Wallace Wade Stadium with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram Sept. 18. That seems distant, especially in the middle of basketball season, but for Alabama fans, there is no offseason. Tickets are already up for auction.

Tennessee Has Not Contacted Duke To Talk To Cutcliffe

Neither Tennessee nor a search firm had contacted Duke to talk with head coach David Cutcliffe as of Wednesday evening, Art Chase, Duke’s sports information director, told The Chronicle.

Multiple media outlets and reporters have speculated that Cutcliffe, Tennessee’s former offensive coordinator, could be a potential candidate to replace Lane Kiffin, who bolted to become the head coach at Southern California Tuesday night. Cutcliffe served as offensive coordinator at Tennessee from 1993 until 1998, and he had been a member of the Volunteers’ coaching staff since 1982, grooming Peyton Manning and winning a national championship in 1998.

Before Tennessee hired Kiffin last year, Cutcliffe immediately removed himself from the candidate pool. This search, however, could be different, mostly because Cutcliffe would not be replacing Philip Fulmer, one of his best friends.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Chris Low reported that Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp was Tennessee’s top target. If he declined the offer, Mike Hamilton, Tennessee’s athletic director, might turn to Cutcliffe, and “at this point, it looks like Hamilton is interested in talking with Cutcliffe.”

Cutcliffe is currently in Durham, Chase said, as January 11-17 is a dead period for recruiting.

Henderson Names His Best Dunk

Know what I do when Duke loses? I go to YouTube, and I watch Gerald Henderson dunk over people. (OK, maybe this cure was more effective when, you know, Henderson still wore No. 15 for Duke, but let’s not get nitpicky here.) So it was completely fortuitous that I recently ran across Dime’s interview with Henderson, in which Gerald Narciso, the interviewer, asked the former Blue Devil about his crazy hops:

Dime:You’ve had some amazing dunks at Duke, like that monster slam against Maryland. Is that your best dunk ever? (Flip Murray, who is sitting in the locker beside Henderson interrupts.)
FM: I’m gonna say yeah…I’m definitely gonna say yeah. That’s the one he’s got on his phone.
GH: (laughs) I’ve had a couple of good dunks in my career, but that was definitely my best one.

Duke fans will be excused if they’ve found their Morphine drip for the afternoon.

Your Pocket Guide To Duke-Penn

Three things to know before No. 7 Duke (10-1), a 36-point favorite, hosts Pennsylvania (0-8, ahem!) tonight at 6 p.m.:

1. This is not your older sibling’s Penn Quakers. The following list is the Aughty years that Penn won the Ivy League: 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007. Don’t expect one of those teams on New Year’s Eve. The Quakers are not only winless, but also fired their coach before conference play even started, which has set off a somewhat fierce firestorm about the dichotomy of athletics and academics at an Ivy League school and — OK, I know you don’t really care. Moving on!

2. Duke is the No. 1 team in the country, per RealTimeRPI.com. Penn is No. 346. There are 347 teams ranked.

3. Let this serve as a daily reminder that Jon Scheyer is really, really efficient at point guard. The senior leads the league in assist-to-turnover ratio at 6.6:1, which, according to these out-of-date statistics, is much better than everyone else. Just as a point of reference, Ty Lawson led the ACC with a 3.5:1 ratio last season. Of course, Scheyer’s clip will come back down to earth eventually — right? — but while it’s in the stratosphere, let’s just acknowledge it with a moment of appreciation. (Acknowledged.) Now enjoy the game, and have a happy and healthy New Year.

Your Pocket Guide To Duke-Long Beach State

Three things to know before No. 7 Duke (9-1), a 25-point favorite, hosts Long Beach State (6-6) tonight at 7 p.m.:

1. Duke isn’t the best team on Long Beach State’s schedule. The 49ers’ strength of schedule is tops in the country for a reason, and it’s not because Cameron Indoor Stadium is the only marquee stop on their slate. They’ve already played Notre Dame, No. 6 West Virginia, No. 21 Clemson, UCLA, No. 2 Texas and No. 3 Kentucky (in that order!), and even though the 49ers only beat UCLA — which really shouldn’t even be on that list this year — they put a scare into Kentucky and Clemson. Either way, this isn’t like playing N.C. Central in women’s basketball.

2. Christmas is usually good to the Blue Devils. As Bryan Strickland noted in today’s Herald-Sun, Duke has won its first game after the holiday break for the last 14 years. One Duke staffer told me earlier this year that one of the strengths of Duke under Krzyzewski is that the Blue Devils don’t lose to teams they’re supposed to beat. A school like Long Beach State might beat a UCLA now and then, but when was the last time Duke lost to a non-BCS school before the New Year? Answer: Dec. 28, 1983 to Southern Methodist, in Hawaii. Six months later, Jonathan Clay Redick was born.

3. In baseball, the 49ers are known as the Dirtbags, and I think they should just adopt the nickname across the board, because those once-ubiquitous hats would make me root much harder for all endeavors in which the Long Beach State 49ers-turned-Dirtbags partake. That’s all.