Author Archives: Jeff Scholl

Your pocket guide to Duke-Lehigh

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The No. 2 Blue Devils will begin NCAA tournament play against No. 15 Lehigh tonight at 7:15 p.m. in Greensboro, N.C. The Mountain Hawks earned an automatic bid to the tournament by capturing the Patriot League tournament championship, making their second trip to the big dance in the past three seasons. Although Duke has won eight of its last 10, Lehigh enters the matchup on an eight-game winning streak of its own—Feb. 9 marks the last time the Mountain Hawks lost a game.

The Blue Devils faced much stronger competition in the ACC than Lehigh did in the Patriot League, but the Mountain Hawks played their fair share of tough non-conference opponents. They even gave top-seeded Michigan State a scare back in December, leading the Spartans by three points at halftime before collapsing in the second half and losing 90-81.

Projected starters:

Duke (27-6)

G Austin Rivers (15.4 ppg, double-figure scoring in 16 straight games)

G Seth Curry (13.4 ppg, 39.4 3-point%)

G Tyler Thornton (at least one made 3-pointer in last 5 games)

F Miles Plumlee (61.3 FG%, 10.8 rpg in last 9 games)

F Mason Plumlee (10.9 ppg, 55.6 FG%)

Lehigh (26-7)

G C.J. McCollum (21.9 ppg, 2.6 spg)

G Mackey McKnight (3.7 apg, 2.07 assist/TO ratio)

F Jordan Hamilton (6.6 ppg, 81.0 FT%)

F Gabe Knutson (12.1 ppg, 50.2 FG%)

F John Adams (43.4 3-point%, 75.0 FT%)

Questions to consider:

1. How will Duke contain C.J. McCollum?

Lehigh’s offense revolves around Patriot League Player of the Year McCollum, who ranks fifth in the nation in scoring at 21.5 points per game. He also leads the Mountain Hawks in rebounding and steals while using over 32% of the team’s possessions. The legitimate NBA prospect feasted on Patriot League defenders but didn’t fare as well against St. John’s, Iowa State and Michigan State, shooting a combined 18-for-49 in those fall non-conference games. If Duke succeeds in shutting McCollum down, Lehigh will probably struggle to keep pace with the Blue Devils’ shooters. The task of guarding the 6-foot-3 junior will likely fall to Austin Rivers since the freshman has the size to bother McCollum. Although Rivers has improved defensively over the course of the season, multiple teams shredded Duke’s perimeter defense during the regular season. And if McCollum can penetrate the lane, expect him to knock down midrange jumpers or get to the line (82.1 FT%).

2. What does the absence of Ryan Kelly mean for Duke’s offense?

Ryan Kelly’s ankle continues to heal, but head coach Mike Krzyzewski still does not feel comfortable playing him for more than a possession or two at a time, according to the New York Times. With Kelly only available for “spot duty,” Duke certainly becomes more predictable on offense. The 6-foot-11 forward’s ability to stretch the floor and draw opposing big men away from the basket gives the Blue Devils a valuable inside-out weapon—and leads to more open looks on the perimeter for Curry, Rivers and Andre Dawkins. Now Lehigh can afford to clog the paint, pester the Plumlees with double teams and close off Rivers’ driving lanes. Josh Hairston has seen extended minutes in Kelly’s absence but doesn’t offer the same offensive skill set, even though he knocks down the occasional baseline jumper.

3. Will Andre Dawkins break out of his shooting slump?

The shooting guard with the silky 3-point stroke exploded for 20+ points four times this season, but lately Dawkins seems virtually invisible on the court. He has shot only 1-for-12 from beyond the arc in the last five games since his 22-point outburst against Florida State on the road. Krzyzewski has subsequently decreased his minutes, and Dawkins’ confidence understandably seems lacking. With Dawkins struggling and Kelly sidelined, Duke only possesses two reliable 3-point threats: Rivers and Curry. And both of those guards did not shoot the ball well during the ACC tournament. If the Blue Devils stray from feeding the Plumlees inside and continue forcing up perimeter shots like they did against Virginia Tech and Florida State last weekend, Lehigh can stay within striking distance.

Counterpoint: North Carolina has too much firepower

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After a demoralizing loss to Miami Sunday, the Blue Devils are no doubt eager to attack their opponents with renewed energy. Unfortunately, their redemption must wait at least one more game, because North Carolina—the most talented team in the ACC—will hand Duke another loss in Chapel Hill Wednesday.

Why? Let’s begin with a recap of last year’s series. The Tar Heels dropped two out of the rivals’ three meetings last season, but North Carolina notched a convincing 81-67 victory in the Dean E. Smith Center to capture the regular season conference championship. Despite 30 points from then-senior Nolan Smith, the Tar Heels jumped out to a 14-point lead in the first half and never looked back.

Although it would be unwise to draw too many conclusions from a single game, almost all of the players who squared off in that matchup last March will be back on the floor Wednesday night, except for a trio of Blue Devil stars. The North Carolina offense also remains as potent as it was last season, with the Tar Heels leading the nation in scoring at just over 84 points per game. Duke can score in bunches, but turning the game into a shootout would play right into North Carolina’s hands. The defensive effort put forth by the Blue Devils will ultimately determine whether they come away with the win, especially if they shoot poorly from the outside.

Yet I have a hard time believing Duke will succeed in shutting down all of Roy Williams’ weapons, especially considering the Blue Devils’ recent struggles on the defensive end. The NBA-ready trio of Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller comprises one of the best frontcourts in the college game, while point guard Kendall Marshall ranks second in Division I in assists per contest. And even without the injured Dexter Strickland, the Tar Heels’ supporting cast features three players—Reggie Bullock, P.J. Hairston and James Michael McAdoo—capable of scoring in double figures on any given night.

After playing inspired defense against Virginia Tech Thursday, Duke experienced a letdown during the Miami game Sunday. Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson—similar in height but less skilled than Henson and Zeller—combined for 42 points in the Hurricanes’ first-ever win at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Given the success Johnson enjoyed down low, North Carolina’s twin towers should receive plenty of good looks at the basket. Granted, neither Zeller nor Henson carries the girth of the 285-pound Johnson, but they don’t need to outmuscle their defenders in order to score. Both players boast an arsenal of post moves and can knock down jumpers from 10-12 feet.

Unless the Blue Devils can consistently play the type of lockdown perimeter defense they displayed in the second half of Sunday’s defeat, Marshall will find a way to get his big men involved. He may not possess enough quickness to drive by Duke’s guards, but his court vision is so highly developed that he can put the ball in the hands of Henson and Zeller without penetrating deep into the lane. The distributor also excels in transition and can pick defenses apart with his outlet pass.

The Blue Devils could fluster the Tar Heels by exploiting Marshall’s occasional carelessness with the ball—almost 30 percent of his possessions this season have resulted in turnovers. But Duke usually doesn’t create many takeaways as a result of its defensive strategy. The Blue Devils’ opponents this season have coughed up the ball about once every five possessions, a mark slightly below the Division I average.

Finally, Duke will need to find a way to contain Barnes—North Carolina’s leading scorer. The 6-foot-8 forward poses a serious matchup problem on the wing, and the Blue Devils are fortunate that he’s still dealing with an ankle injury sustained last week. Nevertheless, Barnes mustered 18 points against Maryland Saturday and hit a late jumper that sealed the Tar Heels’ victory.

When Duke takes the floor at the Dean Dome, Mike Krzyzewski will make sure his team understands the level of intensity needed to earn a victory in the Tobacco Road rivalry. But if Blue Devils haven’t shown the ability to sustain that focus and unity of purpose in tough games at home, doing so in front of 21,750 hostile fans seems unlikely.

Top-ranked Noel speaks with Coach K

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Nerlens Noel—the No. 1-ranked high school senior in the ESPNU Top 100—spoke with Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski over the phone Thursday night, signaling a push from the Blue Devils into the recruitment of the elite prospect. The conversation came one day after the 6-foot-10 center reclassified from the class of 2013 to 2012.

ESPN high school basketball editor Jason Jordan reported the news on Twitter earlier this afternoon. He did not provide any details about the content of the phone call other than to say that Noel and Krzyzewski had a “good talk.”

 

 

Noel also published his first in a series of blog posts for ESPN this morning, saying that he has no favorites and doesn’t “really have an ‘official’ list” of schools he’s considering. Nonetheless, he provided the names of the schools he plans to visit officially over the next eight weeks: Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky and North Carolina. Noel will head to Syracuse Feb. 11 but hasn’t decided whether the visit will be official. He also has scholarship offers from Providence and Connecticut.

Although the explosive shot blocker did not include Duke in that list of schools, he indicated in his blog post that the Blue Devils remain on his radar. Rasheed Sulaimon (Duke’s lone class of 2012 commitment) reached out to Noel after he reclassified and told him to come join the five-star shooting guard in Durham. “That’s definitely something I would look at,” Noel said of Sulaimon’s pitch.

Duke would no doubt love to see the dominant defender with the Kid ‘n Play haircut patrolling the lane in Cameron next season.With the impending graduation of Miles Plumlee, the Blue Devils are in dire need of more frontcourt depth for the 2012-2013 campaign. But Krzyzewski and his staff face tough competition from schools with a history of developing NBA-caliber big men.

Noel hopes to make his college choice around the time of the McDonald’s All American game March 28.

 

Memo to the department of defense

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For a basketball program accustomed to top-10 rankings, first-place ACC finishes and No. 1 NCAA Tournament seeds, the number 89 seems out of place—unless it’s referring to some sort of winning streak.

Unfortunately, that number may come to define the rest of season for the 2012 Blue Devils. Basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks Duke 89th in adjusted defense—a measure that looks at points allowed per possession, while also accounting for opponents’ offensive efficiency and the location of the games. The last eight national champions have all ranked 16th or better in that category.

Since the adjusted defense calculation factors in the quality of the opponent, the argument that the Blue Devils’ defensive statistics are skewed as a result of their strength of schedule is specious. Frankly speaking, this year’s Duke squad does not play the same brand of stifling D that usually serves as a hallmark of the program.

The personnel available to head coach Mike Krzyzewski played a large role in dictating the team’s defensive strategy this season. And it’s clear that he hasn’t yet worked out all of the kinks. Even in early February, Krzyzewski continues to experiment with different wrinkles defensively—as shown by the insertion of Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton into the starting lineup last night against Virginia Tech.

The coaching staff has made a conscious decision to move away from the in-your-face pressure that Blue Devils of yore used to generate takeaways and start the fastbreak.

“We’re not going to be a team that’s going to press fullcourt and have turnovers,” associate head coach Steve Wojciechowski told GoDuke.com in January. “We’re not going to be able to apply that kind of pressure.”

A team committed to solid halfcourt defense must abide by a few basic principles: 1) stay in front of your man, 2) be physical and 3) rotate over to protect the rim when the opponent penetrates the lane. If the team’s perimeter defenders are still working to improve their lateral quickness and have a tendency to get beat off the dribble, the third principle takes on added importance. And successful help defense depends on constant communication among all five players on the court.

“If you’re not going to extend the floor, you’re really going to have to play as one,” Wojciechowski said.

In my last column I examined Duke’s lack of on-court leadership, and it’s no surprise the absence of a more vocal presence has led to a defensive effort that seems to be sorely lacking at times. The Blue Devils have allowed opposing teams to shoot 47.7 percent from inside the 3-point arc this season. Their conference opponents have shot 43.9 percent overall, placing Duke ninth out of the 12 ACC teams in field goal percentage defense.

Despite their defensive struggles, the Blue Devils still boast a 19-3 record and sit atop the conference standings. Duke compensates for its shortcomings on one end of the floor with excellent offensive efficiency. Pomeroy ranks the team third in adjusted offense and seventh in effective field goal percentage (a FG% stat that gives 50% more credit for made 3-pointers). Rather than mix in a zone defense with their traditional man-to-man, the Blue Devils seem determined to win by relying on their corps of sharpshooters—and Mason Plumlee’s increased production in the paint—to overwhelm opponents.

Krzyzewski probably could care less about where his defense stacks up in the Pomeroy ratings if his team continues to win games. But relying on hot shooting to overcome defensive deficiencies can backfire if opponents succeed in frustrating Duke’s offensive rhythm.

When the Blue Devils nearly squandered a 22-point lead last Saturday against St. John’s, they failed to score a field goal in the last six-and-a-half minutes of the game. And the player who almost engineered the Red Storm’s comeback was only a freshman—granted, a very talented one.

Although his team lost, Moe Harkless turned the game into his national debutante party by dropping 30 points on 13-of-21 shooting in one of the nation’s most hostile arenas. He became the first freshman to score 30 in Cameron since Virginia’s Courtney Alexander did so in 1996.

“The execution defensively wasn’t there, and St. John’s stayed on us,” Krzyzewski said after the game. “We started missing, and suddenly, there’s a lot of game pressure on us. How are we in this position right now? I’ll tell you how. We’re not playing defense.”

Florida State was arguably the first team to expose some of the flaws in Duke’s bend-but-don’t-break philosophy. And St. John’s certainly won’t be the last if the Blue Devils don’t start taking more pride on the defensive end.

Jeff Scholl is a Duke senior and former managing editor of The Chronicle’s sports section. His column runs on a bi-weekly basis.

Follow the leader

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Slow starts. Single-digit wins. Racking up as many turnovers as assists. Fans of the Blue Devils don’t usually associate these phrases with a team that has won three consecutive ACC Tournament championships, but Duke has experienced all of these things in the early stages of the conference slate.

At the risk of sounding overcritical, I should acknowledge that the Blue Devils boast a 4-0 mark in the ACC. And despite a down year in the conference, one of those four wins came against an NCAA Tournament team—No. 15 Virginia. But Georgia Tech and Clemson sport a combined record of 17-18 and were both picked to finish in the bottom half of the ACC. And anything less than a drubbing in last night’s home game against lowly Wake Forest would’ve raised further eyebrows.

A win is a win, and it doesn’t make much sense to push the panic button when Duke owns the top spot in the conference. Nevertheless, it’s clear from the team’s recent performances that a go-to player has yet to emerge this season. And when the Blue Devils inevitably find themselves in a dogfight against No. 8 North Carolina—and possibly Florida State as soon as tomorrow afternoon, not to mention the NCAA Tournament—this apparent lack of floor leadership could mean the difference between victory and defeat.

I’m not the first to raise this concern. My fellow columnist Ryan Claxton wrote about the youth of this year’s team back in October, noting how the players previously had the luxury of leaning on Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and Greg Paulus. The fact that the successor to this trio of leaders has yet to emerge became painfully apparent when Duke fell to Temple Jan. 4.

Claxton pointed to Seth Curry as someone who could lead by example and make crucial shots with the game on the line. But Curry seemed practically invisible in the Temple game, unable to create space for his shot against the Owls’ staunch perimeter defense. Miles Plumlee, the team’s lone senior, seems like the player best suited for the job. Both he and his brother Mason play with a level of passion that mirrors the floor generals of years past. The coaching staff certainly views Miles as one of the keys to the team.

“He’s our most physical guy, our best athlete, and our oldest player. He’s the heart of our team,” associate head coach Chris Collins said of Miles during a radio appearance Wednesday. “We’re so proud of how he’s playing.”

Miles displays the hustle and determination of a floor leader (he ranks ninth in the nation in offensive rebounding rate), and his penchant for throwing down monstrous dunks means he can quickly get the rest of his teammates fired up. His limited playing time, however, restricts his ability to rally the rest of the Blue Devils.

Whereas Smith, Scheyer and Paulus would routinely play the full 40, Plumlee averages only 18 minutes per game. And even though he cracked the starting lineup last night, he picked up two quick fouls and sat out for seven minutes before returning.

Given the Blue Devils’ personnel and the offensive skills of Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee, it doesn’t look like Miles will receive a significant increase in playing time for the rest of the season. This presents an opportunity for one of the underclassmen to take more ownership of the team.

Whether Austin Rivers, Quinn Cook or Tyler Thornton possesses the charisma of a Nolan Smith remains to be seen. But without a sustained leadership presence on the court, I predict Duke will continue to struggle to put away some of the more pesky ACC squads.

Jeff Scholl is a Duke senior and former managing editor of The Chronicle’s sports section. His column runs on a bi-weekly basis.

Buckeye blues

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After knocking off three quality opponents amidst the sun and surf of Maui, the Blue Devils received a rude awakening Tuesday night in Columbus at the hands of Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ student section made an arena named the Value City Center about as hostile as possible, and No. 3 Duke quickly realized it wasn’t in paradise anymore when No. 2 Ohio State ran out to a 11-0 lead and never trailed on the way to a blowout 85-63 victory.

In the wake of the Blue Devils’ 68-61 win over then-No. 14 Kansas in the title game of the Maui Invitational, I thought the prospects for this season could be much more promising than many Duke fans were expecting. But Tuesday’s loss indicates the Blue Devils are still searching for cohesion. Don’t get me wrong—Duke has plenty of time to cement itself as a Final Four contender when March rolls around. Despite the lopsided loss to the Buckeyes, the team still showed flashes of the brilliant play that characterized its three games in Maui. But the game also revealed problems the Blue Devils need to address if they want any chance of cutting down the nets in New Orleans this year.

Here are three lessons learned from the Buckeyes’ beating:

1. Mason Plumlee can compete with the nation’s best big men

Plumlee showed no fear in his breakout game against Kansas, taking the fight to man-beast Thomas Robinson and emerging from the battle with 17 points and 12 boards. He displayed a physicality sorely lacking at times last season, and after the game head coach Mike Krzyzewski said Plumlee “played like a such a man.” He continued that yeoman’s effort against Ohio State, going toe-to-toe with 6-foot-9, 280-pound Jared Sullinger—widely regarded as the best player in the country. The Blue Devils fed Mason the ball early and often, and although he struggled to convert his patented hook shot at times, Plumlee held his own against Sullinger. He scored Duke’s first basket of the game on a powerful post move and finished with 16 points on 7-for-12 shooting. Although Sullinger poured in 21 points of his own, Plumlee didn’t give him anything easy and stayed out of foul trouble as well. The junior finally seems to be showing the skills many expected him to display earlier in his career, giving the Blue Devils legitimate post scoring in addition to their potent outside shooters.

2. Austin Rivers can get to the basket whenever he wants, but he’s no Kyrie Irving

I understand it’s somewhat unfair to compare Rivers to Irving. Rivers isn’t a natural point guard—and Irving had a different role on last year’s squad than Rivers does on this year’s team—but it’s difficult not to draw parallels between the phenom freshmen. Duke needs Rivers to put the ball in the basket first and foremost, whereas Irving was arguably the third scoring option behind Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. Nevertheless, Irving drove the lane as well as Rivers does and used uncanny court vision to kick the ball out to open shooters if the paint was overcrowded.

Rivers put the team on his back against the Buckeyes and kept the Blue Devils in contention in the first half with some jaw-dropping moves to the hoop. But on a night when Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly and Andre Dawkins struggled to get open and hit jump shots, it was disappointing that the freshman didn’t do more to get his teammates involved on offense. Irving’s ability to score and distribute with ease as soon as he stepped onto the court in Durham certainly spoiled Duke fans last year. Freshmen need time to adjust to the college game, and Rivers will become a more complete player as the season progresses.

3. The Blue Devils must find a way to guard athletic wing players like Deshaun Thomas

I expected Jared Sullinger to put up big numbers against Duke. The play of 6-foot-7 forward Deshaun Thomas provided the biggest surprise of the game. The wing dissected the Blue Devils’ defense with a variety of shots, including floaters, jumpers and 3-pointers. The Plumlee brothers and Ryan Kelly spent time guarding Thomas, but the trio of big men couldn’t handle his quickness. Unless Michael Gbinije or Josh Hairston see a significant jump in playing time, which is unlikely, Duke does not possess anyone who can match up with players in the mold of Thomas.  The Blue Devils will need to compensate for this shortcoming—and if Tuesday’s game was any indication, zone defense isn’t a viable solution. If Duke doesn’t adapt, Washington’s Terrence Ross, Virginia’s Joe Harris, St. Johns’ Moe Harkless—and of course North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes—could wreak major havoc in future games.

Jeff Scholl is a Duke senior and former managing editor of The Chronicle’s sports section. His column runs on a bi-weekly basis.