Austin Rivers is finally playing like a lottery pick.

It certainly took longer than expected, but Austin Rivers has become the game-changer that Blue Devil fans expected. Since his dominating 29-point performance against the Tar Heels seven games ago, Rivers has scored in double digits every contest and averaged 16 points per game in the last six. More importantly, though, Rivers has shown improved decision making, especially recently—Rivers is shooting 43 percent from the floor in his last four games and has increased his production both distributing the ball and on the glass as well. As his chemistry with his teammates has grown, so has Rivers’ ability to make them better—instead of forcing ill-advised floaters in traffic like he did early in his freshman campaign, Rivers is using his ability to penetrate to draw the defense in and earn open shots for the likes of Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and Ryan Kelly. Against North Carolina last month Rivers showed he can take over a game, giving Duke a weapon that they sorely lacked the first half of the season. If he can do it again in Cameron, the Blue Devils will be hard to beat.

Duke’s balanced offense makes it impossible to shut down the Blue Devils.

Even if Rivers doesn’t explode for 29 points like he did in Chapel Hill, Duke has developed enough scoring options to overcome an off-night from its star. The Blue Devils have three other players that average double digits scoring—Curry, Kelly, and Mason Plumlee—while Andre Dawkins has shown the ability to explode in big games. The Tar Heels aren’t known for their defensive prowess, especially on the perimeter, where Kendall Marshall has been a huge liability as of late and Reggie Bullock is a huge step down from the injured Dexter Strickland. If the Tar Heels choose to key in on Curry and Dawkins on the perimeter, the lane will open up for Rivers. If they choose to shut down Kelly and Plumlee in the post, the Tar Heels yield those perimeter jumpers to a team that shoots 39 percent from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s biggest defensive weapon, John Henson’s shot blocking ability, can be nullified if he’s forced to guard the versatile Ryan Kelly on the perimeter. Indeed, while Duke can key on the Tar Heel frontcourt to limit their offensive production, North Carolina cannot focus too heavily on any one aspect of Duke’s offense without giving opportunities to another.

Tyler Thornton and Miles Plumlee’s emergence has changed Duke’s identity.

Lost in the Zoubekian rise of Miles Plumlee is Tyler Thornton claiming a vice-grip like hold on the point guard position. Since the North Carolina game Thornton has played more than 20 minutes in four of six contests, including more than 30 in his last two. And while Thornton hasn’t filled up the stat sheet, he has quietly become Duke’s best leader on the floor and gradually imprinted his identity as a defender and energetic player on the whole team. Plumlee, meanwhile, has motivated the team through his inspired play of late as the lone-senior on a relatively young squad. While neither Thornton nor Plumlee will dominate the scoreboard against the Tar Heels, both provide the intangibles and character that many thought were lacking in this team in January. Plumlee’s ability to limit Tyler Zeller and Henson on the offensive glass and Thornton’s task of pestering Marshall defensively will likely determine how successful the Blue Devils are in this rivalry showdown, regardless of how players like Curry and Rivers are doing offensively.

The one-on-one matchups favor North Carolina.

For proof of this, look no further than the first matchup in Chapel Hill. Duke held a lead for most of the first half and trailed by just a couple going into the locker room due to its 3-point shooting. In the second half, the Tar Heels were able to maintain a double-digit lead until a combination of heroic Duke shot making, missed free throws and turnovers led to their demise. With Reggie Bullock getting the nod at shooting guard, North Carolina started four players that were 6-foot-7 or taller, and Duke had an incredibly difficult time negating this length. The Tar Heels had a 41-31 rebounding advantage, including 14 offensive rebounds. Miles Plumlee will need to continue his recent emergence and help his brother on the backboards if the Blue Devils are to have any hope of containing Tyler Zeller and John Henson. With 23 points and 7 rebounds, Zeller was absolutely dominant in the first game, scoring almost at will in the first half. Beyond the Tar Heel advantage in the frontcourt, their best player, Harrison Barnes, is a matchup nightmare for the Blue Devils. Duke simply just doesn’t have a long, athletic swingman that is an ideal matchup for the North Carolina leading scorer. Barnes overcame a very slow start to score 25 points in the February 8th game. Early in the second half, Barnes scored on three consecutive trips, and he seemed to have some kind of realization that no Blue Devil can stop him one-on-one.

North Carolina is playing better basketball as of late.

Just from looking at results, one would conclude that Duke is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The win at the horn in the Dean Dome was the beginning of a current eight-game win streak. Take a closer look, however, and it is clear that five of those games could have been losses. The win in Chapel Hill was incredibly improbable. In a 78-73 home win against North Carolina State, the Blue Devils trailed by 20 points with just under 12 minutes remaining in the game. Although the victory on the road against Florida State was impressive, that game easily could have gone either way, despite the Seminoles shooting 39 percent from the floor and 55 percent from the line. It took overtime for Duke to outlast a struggling Virginia Tech team at home, and even cellar-dweller Wake Forest gave the Blue Devils a late scare in their most recent win. North Carolina, similarly, has not lost since Austin Rivers shocked them at the buzzer. And, in those six wins, their average margin of victory is 13 points. The stiffest challenge over that period came on the road against Virginia, where the Tar Heels gritted out a three-point victory on the road. Granted, wins are wins, but North Carolina has been convincing, while Duke has probably created more question marks than it has provided answers.

Home court advantage has not meant much in this series.

With both teams sitting at the identical marks of 26-4 overall and 13-2 in conference coming into the ballgame, it would be easy to give Duke a slight advantage since it will be on its home court. Despite what will undoubtedly be a frenzied atmosphere at Cameron Indoor Stadium, there has been no real home court advantage in this series over the last decade—just as was the case a little less than a month ago. Since 2000, North Carolina is 5-8 in the rivalry at home. Duke does boast a winning record at home, but is just 7-5 against their fiercest rivals within the friendly confines of Cameron over the same time period.